When Will Bulletproof Forum Members Reach Actuarial Escape Velocity?

We are not speaking of immortality.


 


Instead, "actuarial escape velocity" represents that point in time when life expectancy for some group begins to increase by more than 1 year, every year - so that in practice, the average person's chances of dying in any one year actually start to steadily decrease. In other words, aging is functionally reversed.


 


AFAIK the term was coined by Ray Kurzweil, the famous transhumanist. There is a lot of overlap between transhumanists and biohackers, so I assume it is okay to ask this question here.


 


It is commonly thought that AEV will first be reached in developed societies, and among the wealthy in particular. I think it is likewise reasonable to posit that biohackers - like the people on this forum - will be one of the first groups to reach AEV. When do you think this will happen, if at all?


Comments

  • edited October 2013

    incredibly soon*, and while biohackers and others (pharmacology folk come to mind) may stumble upon it at first, it's first 'early adopters' will surely be, by and large, the wealthy (mostly the wealthy within developed societies as you say), if for no reason other than buying the tech.  Depending what the tech actually is (medical/physical?  'mind-uploading' to digital-selves?  other?), the rich obviously are privy to it first.  I can't say I'd be too surprised to see the mere understanding of how humans work (ie, several steps past our already-completed human-genome-project, and the current conntectome and other neural-mapping projects) influence age dramatically, when the knowledge of diet/medicine/exercise is a bit further, in an environment where food is plentiful... it just doesn't seem unrealistic to me to think that the 'really-old' ages of today won't be early deaths in our eyes in a century (*or wayy less; I don't have any strong enough suspicions on the time periods to answer your poll, and suspect that when these things are finally cracked, things will happen very very quick, rendering timeline guesses almost moot; kind of like the idea of trying to imagine much after 'the singularity', to keep it kurzweil ;) )


  • Maybe Bulletproof Forum members' life expectancy has already increased by more than 1 year? 

  • if the progress ended now, no way; the fact that we're making such progress at a time likely so-close to 'singularity', the extra couple years we may be giving ourselves very well could let us see (and be part of) an aging-boom.  


    this is fascinating as well as scary, because tech can destroy as easily as it can help; there's obviously some serious concerns about what may hinder great tech reaching the masses or really helping.  Peter thiel on the subject:


    via TED (shorter talk 15min) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOB7nezuQ7g


    via singularity institute (~40min talk): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROrUea0gLlY


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